Forecast Shows How Trump Tariffs Will Hurt Solar Growth, State by State

California and Texas are hit hardest on a megawatt basis; Montana and Idaho face the steepest percentage declines.

By Lacey Johnson, Greentech Media

A new analysis reveals how the Trump administration's recently imposed solar tariffs could hinder installations at the state level.

The tariffs are predicted to reduce the projected pipeline of new solar construction in the U.S. by 7.6 gigawatts over the next five years, according to GTM Research. Some states will get hit harder than others. 

As the country’s largest solar market, California stands to lose the most from the 30 percent tariff, with an expected 1,079-megawatt decline in new solar capacity between 2018 and 2022. California is trailed by Texas and Florida, which are expected to lose 674 megawatts and 513 megawatts, respectively. 

Nationally, the GTM Research analysis shows that utility-scale solar will bear the brunt of the losses, accounting for 65 percent of the anticipated decline. 

Source: GTM Research